Analysis: What happens if there’s a tie in 2024? Be ready for a ‘contingent election’ | CNN Politics
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With two candidates fighting over a mere 538 Electoral College votes, a tie scenario is more than possible. It’s actually kind of surprising there has only been one tie election so far, in 1800, between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr.

If Kamala and trump both tie the electoral college, which it is looking like a possibility, a new president would be chosen by the new Congress on Jan 6th. Scary to think about

  • helloworld55@lemm.eeOP
    9·
    24 days ago

    I mean, it is a possibility. The current swing states (28 Oct) are AZ, GA, NV, NC, PA, WI, and MI, based on NYTimes polls. If Kamala only wins WI, NV, (NC or GA), and AZ, then both candidates end up with 268 electoral votes, and congress chooses the president.

    Another option is kamala wins AZ, NC, and GA.

    Doing some quick math, that’s a 2.4% chance of happening

    • errer@lemmy.worldEnglish
      2·
      24 days ago

      I am mentally preparing myself for one or more recounts in the critical swing states. I highly doubt we’ll know the winner before December.

    • BakerBagel@midwest.social
      61·
      24 days ago

      PA, MI, and WI are all but guaranteed to go together. Any scenarios where they vote for different candidates are mostly just fantasy

      • randon31415@lemmy.world
        4·
        24 days ago

        I was just explaining this concept to someone about the 2016 polls: all the posters thought of PA,MI, and WI as independent. Each had a 50% chance of going to Trump and he needed all three to win. So they projected him winning at (1/2)^3=1 in 8 chance of winning. Then they found out that those three were correlated.

        I would say if Trump wins WI he wins PA and MI; and if Harris wins PA she wins WI and MI; BUT, if Trump wins PA he is not guaranteed a win in WI nor Harris winning WI guarantees a PA win.

      • helloworld55@lemm.eeOP
        2·
        24 days ago

        Yeah that’s probably true. Just looking at the polls though, I realized this was a possibility.

        Polls could also be wrong, which of course changes the statistics. But from what I’ve read, it seems like those states are each basically a coin flip, and the odds say a tie is not unlikely enough to ignore