Summary
Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight has named Vice President Kamala Harris as the narrow favorite to win the presidential race on Election Day, shifting from former President Donald Trump for the first time since October 17.
Harris’s lead is razor-thin, with FiveThirtyEight’s model showing her winning 50 out of 100 simulations compared to Trump’s 49. Similarly, Nate Silver’s model in The Silver Bulletin also slightly favors Harris, giving her a win in 50.015% of cases.
Both forecasts emphasize the unprecedented closeness of this race, with Pennsylvania as a key battleground.
BuT tHeY wErE WrOnG iN 2016!1
Yes, and no. They estimated a slightly higher chance for a Hillary win over a Donald win, but they were well within the margin of polling error, and they have been for every election. Plus people have a tendency of over-valuing a “51% chance to win”.
While this is good news, it could mean nothing.
EDIT: 538 explained it better than I ever could:
"Statistically, too, there is no meaningful difference between a 50-in-100 chance and a 49-in-100 chance. Small changes in the available polling data or settings of our model could easily change a 50-in-100 edge to 51-in-100 or 49-in-100. That’s all to say that our overall characterization of the race is more important than the precise probability — or which candidate is technically ahead.”
Anyone who’s ever played a dice-based game knows full well how uncertain 50% is.
Warhammer: oh I just need a 4+ to hit, this shouldn’t be bad - proceeds to roll nothing but 2s
DnD: I just need an 11 to hit, surely I’ll get him this turn - fails, rerolls a fail into another fail
Every time you need it, a coinflip will fail you
I played a lot of D&D back in the day, and while I’m normally not a superstitious person, we did have a dice jail for poorly performing dice. That light blue d20 was a repeat offender.
I predict someone will win this election.
Someone will win, but the rest of us might lose, bigly.
Yes; pollsters and advertising platforms. They’ve got to be raking it in these days.
More people should play xcom, with a 51% chance i would assume to miss 2 from 3 shots