Kamala is going to win comfortably. Mark it.
Just a matter of how much violence and SCOTUS fuckery we’ll have to get through first.
Don’t fucking stop. Don’t listen to the polls, good or bad. Our republic depends not merely on winning, but running up the score, so that there’s no doubt about who won.
And if that’s not enough reason, every vote for Kamala is just 1 more Psychic damage that Trump takes after the election. He thinks everyone loves him; your vote is proof that he’s wrong, and it will drive him MAD.
Vote. Vote. VOTE.
Ignore this and vote. Take others to vote. Vote vote vote vote vote
Not big enough sadly
Donald Trump trails with an estimated zero votes…
Yes, the system works!
This makes me happy but doesn’t change the fact that I’ll be voting next week no matter what.
Kamala is going to win comfortably. Mark it.
Popular vote? Oh yeah, not even a question. Harris is going to absolutely dominate in the popular vote.
Electoral vote? Oh see, that’s a different story. Shit is close, like uncomfortably close.
Biden pulled Michigan in 2020 by about 150k votes. A 2.8% margin. And he was up in the polls by 10% going into it. Right now Harris is showing only a 1.7% lead in the polls in Michigan. Harris has to absolutely take Michigan, there’s not a path to winning without Michigan without pulling something like Ohio or Georgia, which she’s 6% under in Ohio and 2% under in Georgia. So the GA surprise, nobody should be counting on that. Georgia by the numbers is going Trump this election. Ohio is solid Trump territory. Thinking Florida or Texas might sway is foolish thinking. So without those four, Harris has to pick up the Rust belt if she wants to win, and she’s not polling well there. Like she’s ahead, but Biden was double digits leading the Rust belt in 2020 and that turned into single digit percentage leads in votes. Harris has single digit leads in the Rust Belt polls (in aggregate).
If Harris wins this, in the electoral college, it’s going to be by the thinnest margins we’ve seen before. Not even joking, Trump on the Electoral college has a collection of states that he’s made incredibly safe that puts only a handful of battlegrounds he needs. Harris has nothing but uphill from where we are currently at.
The lead is larger than the one Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in the 2016 election as the Democratic nominee woos swing states
From the article. And Clinton lost by some of the thinnest margins in key states. In Michigan, she lost by 0.1% of the vote. That was a massive loss that costed Clinton incredibly. Literally 10,000 votes were the difference. The Libertarian candidate received twelve times the number of votes that Clinton lost by. WI, MI, and PA, Clinton lost those three states by less than 100,000 votes. And it was those losses that gave Trump the win. Less than 100,000 votes is was made the 2016 election.
Anybody who thinks this election is a done deal is talking out their ass. You run the numbers for who will win which State, Trump is inches from victory. This is going to be a insanely close race. Everyone HAS TO GET OUT THERE and vote. This is going to get decided by single digit percents in key states if not even closer than that.
You just made my stomach turn, but you’re right. This shit is about to get way fucking crazier than I think anybody is prepared for.
There are some additional reasons to be optimistic.
First, the poll numbers have been getting skewed by Republican affiliated pollsters that consistently show Trump in a better position than the nonpartisan polls. The race is definitely close, but if these partisan polls really are just trying to give the impression of a surge in Trump support and aren’t actually more accurate than the nonpartisan polls, then that potentially pushes some states from a narrow Trump lead back to a narrow Harris lead. And it’s not like there isn’t a precedent for this, it’s exactly what happened with the polls in 2022.
Second, while Republicans are casting a higher percentage of the early votes than in 2020, that increase is largely coming from people who voted on election day in 2020. Moving a vote from election day to early voting is a net change of 0. And the Harris gotv machine appears to be much stronger than the one Trump outsourced to Musk, which seems to be targeting the least reliable voters while also using the least reliable canvassers. It’s no wonder Musk resorted to buying
votespetition signatures.Harris has a stronger lead among women than Biden or Clinton did, and the gender gap in turnout so far is also higher in the previous elections. In addition, Harris is leading among voters over 65, a reversal from previous elections and particularly important because they are by far the most reliable voters.
And the news cycle has not been kind to Trump this past week. It turns out that insulting groups that make up a sizable chunk of the voting population in certain key swing states isn’t a good move. Will it make a difference by Tuesday? Hard to say, but it sure as hell isn’t helping him.
None of this is terribly solid, it’s just trends and indicators, no one should be getting complacent here. But it’s enough for me to feel cautiously optimistic that Harris will be able to secure Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with a reasonable chance of picking up at least one more state.
If the Republican gotv gamble backfires and their election day turnout advantage doesn’t fully materialize, we could see more states flip. More importantly, it could be enough to flip the House (currently a toss up) and maybe even hold the Senate (requires defying expectations in at least 2 out of 3 races, so a long shot but not impossible).
I have voted and Harris will win my state. I’m not sure what else I can do except go online, pretend to be a gopher and really get weird, but I doubt that’d sway anyone and I got shit to do
Polls are meaningless. VOTE!
If a democrat didn’t have a early vote lead they would immediately loose.
True. If the team didn’t score more points in the first quarter than the other team scored the entire game, they would definitely lose.
Good, carry on VP Harris.
don’t hold your breath. prepare for the worst, while hoping for the best!
also, vote if you haven’t already.
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As with all elections. The youth don’t come out, but the elderly do. Elections are decided by retired people.
Ignore everything you see about polling. Polls don’t win elections, but they can sway elections.
Vote. Vote. Vote.
Cautiously optimistic is the right approach IMO
The Democratic nominee had an advantage of 19 to 29 points over her Republican rival, according to tallies by ABC News-Ipsos, New York Times-Siena College and CNN.
The lead is larger than the one Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump in the run-up to the 2016 election when polls showed the Democratic nominee leading with 8 to 16 points.
Joe Biden had a greater margin in late 2020 polls when Democrats embraced mail voting, while Trump attacked it and persuaded his supporters not to do it.
Ok, so basically Democrats always have an advantage in early voting and it’s hard to know what to make of this. It’s pretty much exactly what you’d expect given that 2016 was before Trump heavily politicized early and mail-in voting and 2020 was during the pandemic when Democrats were less likely to want to go to crowded polling places because of the whole believing Covid exists thing.
