Summary
Despite polling indicating a competitive race, Trump and his allies continue to falsely claim that the only way he can lose is through widespread voter fraud. This claim is based on his false belief that he did not lose the 2020 election and his 2024 campaign’s foundation.
However, several factors, including Trump’s feuds with Republicans, the RNC’s abandonment of efforts to make inroads with nonwhite voters, and the impact of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, could lead to a Trump loss, which he has primed his supporters to be ready for without cause.
While there are strategic advantages to that - if he wins, it’ll feel more like a mandate that will justify whatever horrifying shit his administration intends to do and if he loses, it’s an instant objection - I tend to think that the real foundation of this whole attitude is just Trump’s delusional narcissism.
Trump’s reality isn’t rooted in actual objective reality. It’s based on himself and himself alone - if he believes it, then, to him, it is and can only be true, and he believes whatever serves to assuage the squalling demands of his titanic ego and his childish greed and need for attention.
I have no doubt that in the fantasy universe in which he actually lives, he really can’t possibly lose. It’s just in the real universe - the one the rest of us live in but he does not - that he can (and hopefully will) lose.
Absolutely not, he has privately told people he knows he lost the 2020 election. He routinely lies to get what he wants.
He’s relying on The Base to take action. He’s using propaganda to convince Republican voters to not accept a loss and to allow Republicans to take whatever measures (actually steal the election) to ensure that “justice” is served and a “correct” counting of votes can happen. This is entirely meant to give cover to the lie that the Democrats cheated and so allows them to be more extreme in a coup attempt.