As Trump and his spinners suddenly appear uncertain of victory amid last-minute shifts in the polls, the head of a Democratic Super PAC explains what must happen now for Harris to win.
Its worth searching it up, theres many recent stories detailing the methods.
They use a representative sample by reaching out to random voters or posting ads online in social spaces. Once they have enough people to make representative groups to match the population of the state or nation, maybe a few thousand people, they then ask them questions.
They tend to use the same people repeatedly, as they are more reliable in answering, and some of them are regularly paid small amounts for their time.
The polls are essentially tracking a group of people who thought it was worth their time to answer polls, which I am not a part of, and noone I know is a part of.
Edit to add: one new thing this election cycle is that a new weight has been added to account for party affiliation, which wasnt used before.
They use a representative sample by reaching out to random voters or posting ads online in social spaces. Once they have enough people to make representative groups to match the population of the state or nation, maybe a few thousand people, they then ask them questions.
They tend to use the same people repeatedly, as they are more reliable in answering, and some of them are regularly paid small amounts for their time.
The polls are essentially tracking a group of people who thought it was worth their time to answer polls, which I am not a part of, and noone I know is a part of.
Edit to add: one new thing this election cycle is that a new weight has been added to account for party affiliation, which wasnt used before.
https://goodauthority.org/news/pollsters-are-weighting-surveys-differently-in-2024/