There was a recent poll in Kansas that had Trump up 4 points, with a 4-point margin of error, in a state that he won by 15 points in 2020. Do I think my home state is actually going to go blue this election? No…but polls like these suggest the rural vote (in particular farmers, who for whatever else you might have to say about them, tend to at least have a political instinct for financial self-preservation that other rural voters seem to lack) not breaking nearly as heavily in his favor as it did last cycle.