Summary
Regardless of Putin’s decision regarding the war in Ukraine, Russia’s economy is facing a crisis due to factors such as sanctions, a shrinking sovereign wealth fund, and a labor shortage. The war has boosted growth, but Russia cannot sustain it without significant economic consequences.
For him this is the best possible outcome. He remains relevant and firmly planted on the throne until he dies. Endless but not very active trench war is his dream, even a victory, whatever that could look like, is worse for him