Replace “artist” and “graphical”, and you just described most jobs.
yeah, it’s a generalized statement, so that makes sense. It’d be weird if my statement only applied to the artist economy, not like, the rest of the economy.
I don’t think most people are ok losing their jobs even if those jobs aren’t especially inherently rewarding; they’re getting paid for their area of training.
i think this is what most people would say, and i would generally agree, however there is always going to be some level of job market upset, which is a good thing for society, and people, even if they don’t like it. It’s a liquidity thing at the end of the day. If you have no liquidity doing anything other than what you first started doing is going to be really hard, if you have more liquidity, it becomes easier. Although there is a point of diminishing returns where it turns into a revolving door of short term labor.
They’re not just gonna be able to find a new job because in this hypothetical, the demand for it (a living human doing the work) is gone.
yeah but that’s the thing, i’m not convinced that the entire field is just, gone. Maybe a small portion of it, like 10-20% is less active overall right now. Some art communities are pretty insulated from the broader market as a whole, the furry community being one of them. I think most realistically, AI generated art is going to be used in places where you aren’t actively removing art from the art pool, but adding more art to the already busy art pool.
I mean in Hollywood for example, AI is most commonly used to do what, remove mustaches and shit? Replace existing CGI that would need to be done on top of faces? Particularly the really time intensive and tedious parts of it that aren’t cost effective to approach and manage. Otherwise you would just pay a normal artist to do it, because they’re going to be extremely competitive. It’s not like you can just delete an entire production team and smash a movie script through an AI (that was also written by AI) and get a full movie out of it.
I think a lot of it is a senseless overreaction, i’m sort of sympathetic to it, but at the end of the day, there hasn’t been an artist famine to my knowledge, so it seems like things are going fine.
I consider this an increase in supply because it’s an increase in the potential supply.
counter point. It’s not actually an increase in supply potential, it’s both supply and demand. You can’t just look at this like it’s increasing productivity exclusively, although it is in some part, AI simply can’t do certain things that humans can. And you can’t act like an increase in productivity won’t drive in increase in demand either. Because it will. That’s the entire operating principle of the global economy. a steady increase in productivity leads to a steady increase in supply, which leads to a steady increase of demand, which leads to overall growth.
You might be paid less as an artist, but unless you get a significant downturn that we would’ve already heard about, things like covid are going to effect you more heavily.
if you 10x the productivity of an employee, that typically doesn’t mean you produce 10x the product, it typically means you need 1/10th the employees. That payroll saving goes right into the pockets of execs.
but you also need to consider that in the global market, you aren’t just supplying a magical constant of demand, if you can increase demand, you can increase supply. and lower the price of the product as well, making it both more competitive, more accessible, and more productive. Since now you have an incentive to increase the production of that product to meet supply.
Of course if people don’t buy things, it doesn’t matter anymore, but i think both of us here can agree that people don’t really seem content to stop spending money on things any time soon.
Also wrt luddites, they weren’t wrong. It did absolutely demolish their industry and devastate the workers.
isn’t this primarily because they never industrialized/mechanized and then ended up being out competed in the market by people who did? Even if this is a concern, you can always shift focus, and move from making generalized textiles, to more complex, difficult to make, and more expensive textiles. Humans always have an advantage of machines and robots, we’re smarter. A lot smarter. You can look at other industries like watch making for example, expert watch craftsman could have lost their jobs to mechanized industrial production, but they never did. Hand made watches are still a big deal.
LLMs threaten almost every industry
i’m not sure how much they threaten every industry collectively, though i’m sure they pose some level of obstacle, at the end of the day i’ve only ever seen AI being used for janitorial tasks in companies, like boiler-plating reports, and categorizing documentation. And also customer support, which is not particularly something i’m a fan of, but there is definitely utility in it. Almost never fully replacing entire positions, that would be too costly.
I largely agree with you, and I definitely appreciate that you’re being very civil in our discussion.
There are a few points I’d like to clarify and maybe counter:
I think you’re putting too much burden of responsibility on the workers for decisions that the employer makes. To just say it’s a liquidity problem is ignoring how many people have a liquidity problem and the sources of that problem, and the responsibility that employers should have to their community. I agree that some degree of turnover is ok, but I don’t think that’s what we’re talking about.
I agree that the entire [field] won’t just vanish, but I believe that the increase in productivity means that they’ll need way fewer workers.
this isn’t just affecting fine arts and support:
This is also affecting things like technical writers, marketing, copywriting, programming, paralegal, even diagnostic medicine. Pretty much any office job is in the line of fire.
And when the spread is that wide, even 10-15% of the workforce is devastating to industries and even the economy as a whole.
And the spread is only gonna get wider as they introduce “agents” who are capable of making “decisions” autonomously, so you don’t need a human to tell the AI what to do, and then do something with the output.
Yes the Luddites never mechanized, that’s the thing they were fighting against. They couldn’t all move to complex textiles, because the market wasn’t there for it, if they lowered their prices enough to generate the demand then they couldn’t recoup their time and material costs.
Wrt supply/demand, an increase in supply drives an increase in demand through a lowering of prices. This is the foundation of microeconomics. It doesn’t really translate to the messiness of IRL, but it’s still close enough that it shows that bad things will happen.
In the end it comes down to what the LLM producers are promising. They’re promising to be able to do all this. Idk if they can actually fulfill their promises, but I think it’s crazy to wait and see if they can before moving to prevent it. They’re saying they’re gonna do it, let’s make them not
I largely agree with you, and I definitely appreciate that you’re being very civil in our discussion.
that’s the primary reason i’m here at all, i enjoy discussions about things like this, it’s interesting, and sometimes you even learn things.
I think you’re putting too much burden of responsibility on the workers for decisions that the employer makes.
to be clear, i wasn’t defining this as a worker issue, or an employer issue, i was stating it as a fundamental limitation of our economic model. It’s sort of a fundamental limitation of how making money works at the moment.
I agree that some degree of turnover is ok, but I don’t think that’s what we’re talking about.
that probably isn’t, but a significant problem i find with people is that they often don’t provide enough specificity or detail surrounding their statements or claims, to the point where it’s either irrelevant or simply too broad. Broad enough in some cases to the point where you could write a PHD on it, and then work for 20 years in that field, before answering the question.
People will hand waive the entirety of capitalism, in favor of something like socialism, which has no practical implementation as far as i’m aware, outside of the few tries that haven’t quite worked out optimally so far. I just can’t justify using logic in that way, i try to at least lock down on what i’m talking about to a point where it’s broadly understandable. Which is challenging, but that’s partly why im here lol.
but I believe that the increase in productivity means that they’ll need way fewer workers.
i think this is probably true, but given the accuracy and competence of most existing AI, i highly expect this to be restricted mostly due to “additional” productivity, it’s essentially creating a new market segment where one wasn’t previously. An AI alone can’t exactly replace a human. It can replace certain aspects and parts of a human, but never a full one. So it’s really hard to say how bad it will hit the industries in question.
this isn’t just affecting fine arts and support:
yeah for sure, i’m just not sure how much of this is going to be A: significant, or B: impactful.
And the spread is only gonna get wider as they introduce “agents” who are capable of making “decisions” autonomously, so you don’t need a human to tell the AI what to do, and then do something with the output.
It’s also worth noting that this is a significantly more risky move to make, especially if you put it in charge of handling anything other than doing “menial organization” work. For example, money. I highly doubt you would find anybody willing to let an AI buy things for them.
A lot of this labor is already automated through things like scripting and strict data entry. This is probably only going to make it less strict in that sense.
Yes the Luddites never mechanized, that’s the thing they were fighting against. They couldn’t all move to complex textiles, because the market wasn’t there for it, if they lowered their prices enough to generate the demand then they couldn’t recoup their time and material costs.
To be clear, this is kind of the example of bringing a knife to a gun fight, it’s your fault if you lose at that point. And while it’s definitely true that it cost the market jobs, the increase in productivity was probably more significant than the loss from textiles. Not to mention the decrease in product prices, making the living standards of everybody higher.
You could theoretically never mechanize, but you’re fighting a losing battle, by never innovating. Just look at intel, got blown out of the water by AMD since they sat on technology for a decade, and they’re losing market share now. They had a huge stock crash over their recent CPU lineup being overcooked, and burning themselves out. They’re not having a particularly great time right now, but that’s just what happens. And as a market, we’re all doing better now, the hardware capability of CPUs has improved MASSIVELY since the start of ryzen, and laptops have even seen a significant boost in productivity so much so that apple had to move to their own silicon to keep any sort of lead on the competition. Really good CPUs are a lot cheaper now, you can use ECC memory with most ryzen chips, while you have to pay intel for that privilege. The single thread speed of CPUs has increased significantly as well, making basically every task that much faster, the power efficiency of chips has also massively improved as well.
Generally, in a market like ours, losing existing jobs, and increasing productivity is going to be a beneficial tradeoff, as it opens more space for other types of productivity down the road. It’s sort of the endless optimization of a specific item, but the global economy.
In the end it comes down to what the LLM producers are promising. They’re promising to be able to do all this.
and so far, they’ve lied. Google cheated on the gemini presentation. Grok can’t even produce real facts. ChatGPT has progressively worsened since launch due to bad data. Image generation and video generation has improved, but we’re at a point where it can’t improve more than it has already. At least that significantly, so we’re quickly approaching a wall. Unless we pivot, and they will, but it will have to be marketable at the end of the day, and that’s the hard part.
I think it’s also worth noting that we should in some capacity, prepare for the inevitable, never be comfortable, always be ready. You can’t lie down at the sight of a sword, and not expect to be killed anyway. Fighting against it might work, but that’s not historically supported in any significant capacity to my knowledge. You can do nothing, which is even worse. Or you can do your best to prepare as well as you can. There is always something to be offering over other people. Especially AI.
I’m not inherently against LLMs and AI.
Im against putting the power of LLMs in the hands of the employers instead of the workers. People self-hosting their own free LLMs to make their job and home life easier? I’m all about that, and I can even forgive the theft and energy usage to an extent.
And also that I’m a developer in this space - I don’t train models or sell them directly, but I make products that use LLMs to increase productivity. I know I’m part of the problem, but I was transfere onto the project and my job is simply too good to quit over it, so I’m a hypocrite to some extent. What people in this space are trying to do is absolutely replace workers so that businesses can save on payroll and increase margins. They don’t say it, but it’s telling how they dance around the topic.
good news for you, there is a lot of open source AI shit out there that you can start fucking with today or tomorrow even. The technicality is that doing anything particular exciting requires about a billion dollars in hardware to actually train models and create usable data sets lol.
What people in this space are trying to do is absolutely replace workers so that businesses can save on payroll and increase margins. They don’t say it, but it’s telling how they dance around the topic.
i’m sure they are, business owners would have 0 employees if they could, but i’m just not convinced that AI is at a point now, or will ever be at a point where it can ever do that effectively. Maybe in an amazon warehouse, which is probably for the better anyway.
yeah, it’s a generalized statement, so that makes sense. It’d be weird if my statement only applied to the artist economy, not like, the rest of the economy.
i think this is what most people would say, and i would generally agree, however there is always going to be some level of job market upset, which is a good thing for society, and people, even if they don’t like it. It’s a liquidity thing at the end of the day. If you have no liquidity doing anything other than what you first started doing is going to be really hard, if you have more liquidity, it becomes easier. Although there is a point of diminishing returns where it turns into a revolving door of short term labor.
yeah but that’s the thing, i’m not convinced that the entire field is just, gone. Maybe a small portion of it, like 10-20% is less active overall right now. Some art communities are pretty insulated from the broader market as a whole, the furry community being one of them. I think most realistically, AI generated art is going to be used in places where you aren’t actively removing art from the art pool, but adding more art to the already busy art pool.
I mean in Hollywood for example, AI is most commonly used to do what, remove mustaches and shit? Replace existing CGI that would need to be done on top of faces? Particularly the really time intensive and tedious parts of it that aren’t cost effective to approach and manage. Otherwise you would just pay a normal artist to do it, because they’re going to be extremely competitive. It’s not like you can just delete an entire production team and smash a movie script through an AI (that was also written by AI) and get a full movie out of it.
I think a lot of it is a senseless overreaction, i’m sort of sympathetic to it, but at the end of the day, there hasn’t been an artist famine to my knowledge, so it seems like things are going fine.
counter point. It’s not actually an increase in supply potential, it’s both supply and demand. You can’t just look at this like it’s increasing productivity exclusively, although it is in some part, AI simply can’t do certain things that humans can. And you can’t act like an increase in productivity won’t drive in increase in demand either. Because it will. That’s the entire operating principle of the global economy. a steady increase in productivity leads to a steady increase in supply, which leads to a steady increase of demand, which leads to overall growth.
You might be paid less as an artist, but unless you get a significant downturn that we would’ve already heard about, things like covid are going to effect you more heavily.
but you also need to consider that in the global market, you aren’t just supplying a magical constant of demand, if you can increase demand, you can increase supply. and lower the price of the product as well, making it both more competitive, more accessible, and more productive. Since now you have an incentive to increase the production of that product to meet supply.
Of course if people don’t buy things, it doesn’t matter anymore, but i think both of us here can agree that people don’t really seem content to stop spending money on things any time soon.
isn’t this primarily because they never industrialized/mechanized and then ended up being out competed in the market by people who did? Even if this is a concern, you can always shift focus, and move from making generalized textiles, to more complex, difficult to make, and more expensive textiles. Humans always have an advantage of machines and robots, we’re smarter. A lot smarter. You can look at other industries like watch making for example, expert watch craftsman could have lost their jobs to mechanized industrial production, but they never did. Hand made watches are still a big deal.
i’m not sure how much they threaten every industry collectively, though i’m sure they pose some level of obstacle, at the end of the day i’ve only ever seen AI being used for janitorial tasks in companies, like boiler-plating reports, and categorizing documentation. And also customer support, which is not particularly something i’m a fan of, but there is definitely utility in it. Almost never fully replacing entire positions, that would be too costly.
I largely agree with you, and I definitely appreciate that you’re being very civil in our discussion.
There are a few points I’d like to clarify and maybe counter:
I think you’re putting too much burden of responsibility on the workers for decisions that the employer makes. To just say it’s a liquidity problem is ignoring how many people have a liquidity problem and the sources of that problem, and the responsibility that employers should have to their community. I agree that some degree of turnover is ok, but I don’t think that’s what we’re talking about.
I agree that the entire [field] won’t just vanish, but I believe that the increase in productivity means that they’ll need way fewer workers.
this isn’t just affecting fine arts and support:
This is also affecting things like technical writers, marketing, copywriting, programming, paralegal, even diagnostic medicine. Pretty much any office job is in the line of fire.
And when the spread is that wide, even 10-15% of the workforce is devastating to industries and even the economy as a whole.
And the spread is only gonna get wider as they introduce “agents” who are capable of making “decisions” autonomously, so you don’t need a human to tell the AI what to do, and then do something with the output.
Yes the Luddites never mechanized, that’s the thing they were fighting against. They couldn’t all move to complex textiles, because the market wasn’t there for it, if they lowered their prices enough to generate the demand then they couldn’t recoup their time and material costs.
Wrt supply/demand, an increase in supply drives an increase in demand through a lowering of prices. This is the foundation of microeconomics. It doesn’t really translate to the messiness of IRL, but it’s still close enough that it shows that bad things will happen.
In the end it comes down to what the LLM producers are promising. They’re promising to be able to do all this. Idk if they can actually fulfill their promises, but I think it’s crazy to wait and see if they can before moving to prevent it. They’re saying they’re gonna do it, let’s make them not
that’s the primary reason i’m here at all, i enjoy discussions about things like this, it’s interesting, and sometimes you even learn things.
to be clear, i wasn’t defining this as a worker issue, or an employer issue, i was stating it as a fundamental limitation of our economic model. It’s sort of a fundamental limitation of how making money works at the moment.
that probably isn’t, but a significant problem i find with people is that they often don’t provide enough specificity or detail surrounding their statements or claims, to the point where it’s either irrelevant or simply too broad. Broad enough in some cases to the point where you could write a PHD on it, and then work for 20 years in that field, before answering the question.
People will hand waive the entirety of capitalism, in favor of something like socialism, which has no practical implementation as far as i’m aware, outside of the few tries that haven’t quite worked out optimally so far. I just can’t justify using logic in that way, i try to at least lock down on what i’m talking about to a point where it’s broadly understandable. Which is challenging, but that’s partly why im here lol.
i think this is probably true, but given the accuracy and competence of most existing AI, i highly expect this to be restricted mostly due to “additional” productivity, it’s essentially creating a new market segment where one wasn’t previously. An AI alone can’t exactly replace a human. It can replace certain aspects and parts of a human, but never a full one. So it’s really hard to say how bad it will hit the industries in question.
yeah for sure, i’m just not sure how much of this is going to be A: significant, or B: impactful.
It’s also worth noting that this is a significantly more risky move to make, especially if you put it in charge of handling anything other than doing “menial organization” work. For example, money. I highly doubt you would find anybody willing to let an AI buy things for them.
A lot of this labor is already automated through things like scripting and strict data entry. This is probably only going to make it less strict in that sense.
To be clear, this is kind of the example of bringing a knife to a gun fight, it’s your fault if you lose at that point. And while it’s definitely true that it cost the market jobs, the increase in productivity was probably more significant than the loss from textiles. Not to mention the decrease in product prices, making the living standards of everybody higher.
You could theoretically never mechanize, but you’re fighting a losing battle, by never innovating. Just look at intel, got blown out of the water by AMD since they sat on technology for a decade, and they’re losing market share now. They had a huge stock crash over their recent CPU lineup being overcooked, and burning themselves out. They’re not having a particularly great time right now, but that’s just what happens. And as a market, we’re all doing better now, the hardware capability of CPUs has improved MASSIVELY since the start of ryzen, and laptops have even seen a significant boost in productivity so much so that apple had to move to their own silicon to keep any sort of lead on the competition. Really good CPUs are a lot cheaper now, you can use ECC memory with most ryzen chips, while you have to pay intel for that privilege. The single thread speed of CPUs has increased significantly as well, making basically every task that much faster, the power efficiency of chips has also massively improved as well.
Generally, in a market like ours, losing existing jobs, and increasing productivity is going to be a beneficial tradeoff, as it opens more space for other types of productivity down the road. It’s sort of the endless optimization of a specific item, but the global economy.
and so far, they’ve lied. Google cheated on the gemini presentation. Grok can’t even produce real facts. ChatGPT has progressively worsened since launch due to bad data. Image generation and video generation has improved, but we’re at a point where it can’t improve more than it has already. At least that significantly, so we’re quickly approaching a wall. Unless we pivot, and they will, but it will have to be marketable at the end of the day, and that’s the hard part.
I think it’s also worth noting that we should in some capacity, prepare for the inevitable, never be comfortable, always be ready. You can’t lie down at the sight of a sword, and not expect to be killed anyway. Fighting against it might work, but that’s not historically supported in any significant capacity to my knowledge. You can do nothing, which is even worse. Or you can do your best to prepare as well as you can. There is always something to be offering over other people. Especially AI.
It’s worth mentioning two things here.
I’m not inherently against LLMs and AI.
Im against putting the power of LLMs in the hands of the employers instead of the workers. People self-hosting their own free LLMs to make their job and home life easier? I’m all about that, and I can even forgive the theft and energy usage to an extent.
And also that I’m a developer in this space - I don’t train models or sell them directly, but I make products that use LLMs to increase productivity. I know I’m part of the problem, but I was transfere onto the project and my job is simply too good to quit over it, so I’m a hypocrite to some extent. What people in this space are trying to do is absolutely replace workers so that businesses can save on payroll and increase margins. They don’t say it, but it’s telling how they dance around the topic.
good news for you, there is a lot of open source AI shit out there that you can start fucking with today or tomorrow even. The technicality is that doing anything particular exciting requires about a billion dollars in hardware to actually train models and create usable data sets lol.
i’m sure they are, business owners would have 0 employees if they could, but i’m just not convinced that AI is at a point now, or will ever be at a point where it can ever do that effectively. Maybe in an amazon warehouse, which is probably for the better anyway.