Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs will dent U.S. economic growth going into 2026, said Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist Seth Carpenter.

Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs will dent U.S. economic growth going into 2026, said Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist Seth Carpenter.

President-elect Trump has stated that he intends to impose a blanket tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports, along with extra tariffs ranging from 60% to 100% on goods imported from China. During the September Presidential debate, he described this approach as a means to extract funds from competing countries.

There is also a question of when and how swiftly these tariffs get implemented. In the event that they are enacted all at once, they could result in a “big negative shock” to the economy, Carpenter told CNBC’s Sri Jegarajah on the sidelines of Morgan Stanley’s annual Asia Pacific Summit in Singapore.

Carpenter, who maintained Morgan Stanley’s base case of these tariffs being spread over 2025, said they would lead to higher inflation.

“Then into 2026, we think growth starts to come down a great deal in the U.S. because of those tariffs and some of the other policies,” he cautioned.

“Very clear, tariffs push up inflation. Very clear, tariffs are a drag on growth for the U.S., not just for the countries that the tariffs are put on,” Carpenter added.

  • Botzo@lemmy.world
    171·
    10 days ago

    “Growth” is possibly the dumbest metric we’ve been sold.

    But now every publicly traded or VC backed company has to “grow” constantly at a multiplicative rate endlessly. Can’t be happy making some number of units a year. Gotta diversify and keep finding new ways to grow the business.

    God forbid anybody mentions market saturation, or even worse: long term customer satisfaction.

    No, profit and dividends weren’t enough. Growth offers more faster, so torch anything that stands in the way.

    • FabledAepitaph@lemmy.world
      11·
      10 days ago

      I feel you… but without “growth”, how will all these children get job, and how will we get promotions?

    • MutilationWave@lemmy.world
      1·
      10 days ago

      Yeah I want to cash in like I did during the pandemic (and lost because I expected a W and we got a V). But I’m more concerned this time the dipshit in chief is going to flip the casino. When do we totally cash out?

  • adarza@lemmy.caEnglish
    51·
    11 days ago

    a means to extract funds from competing countries poor and middle class americans

    fixed that.

    he still has no fucking clue how tariffs work.

    “Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had.” Dr. Kelley (Wharton professor)

    no shit.