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Cake day: June 30th, 2023

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  • Eh, it’s not to say it’s a worthy endeavour for them. But Putin doesn’t care about the dead, and there are very few signs that even the russian society at large does.

    Russia may well go through another collapse after this, but that doesn’t mean they won’t cling on long enough to cripple Ukraine and/or annex parts of it. That is my concern.

    Remember: Karelia still belongs to Russia, and the winter war wasn’t any less bloody for them.


  • Advances on land are definitely not a be-all/end-all kind of thing, but rather a metric in terms of current force ratio. If Ukraine had enough troops and supply of weapons, they wouldn’t have to give up ground. The current supply they receive is insufficient so they have to yield ground though. It’s a symptom.

    Unless russia starts running out of either manpower or war supplies before Ukraine does, they are not in danger of losing. And as unpopular this opinion might be, with the current level (=limited in number and scope of use) of support Ukraine is getting, it’s far from decided that russian war effort collapses first.