From 14 to 31 is still pretty rare. (I checked, population is ~6mil).
And at such a low rate relative to the population, if you’re assuming most cases don’t report it, the difference in reporting could pretty easily be increased awareness that reporting it was an option or some other similar cause unrelated to an actual increased failure rate.
The hard math is figuring out the path (because small imprecision in the guessed location of the object over time can pretty easily cause meaningful errors. If you control the engine and know the real vectors, projecting their path out isn’t super complicated.
But I’m all for the idea that knowing a variety of math allows you to solve a lot more problems.