Greg Clarke

I guess this guy doesn’t like to get misgendered

I know the difference. Neither OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic have admitted they can’t scale up their chat bots. That statement is not true.

That may have been true for the early LLM chatbots but not anymore. ChatGPT for instance, now writes code to answer logical questions. The o1 models have background token usage because each response is actually the result of multiple background LLM responses.

The title of the article is literally a lie which is easily fact checked. Follow the links to quotes in the article to see what the quoted individuals actually said about the topic.

No, a chat bot as it’s talked about here is not an LLM. This article is discussing limitations of LLM training data and inferring that chat bots can not scale as a result. There are many techniques that can be used to continue to improve chat bots.

I’m sorry if I’m coming across as condescending, that’s not my intent. It’s never been “as simple as just throwing more data and CPU at the problem”. There were algorithmic challenges for every LLM evolution. There are still lots of potential improvements using the existing training data. But even if there wasn’t, we’ll still see loads of improvements in chat bots because of other techniques.

Edit: typo

People that don’t understand those terms are using them interchangeably

Yes of course I’m asserting that. While the performance of LLMs may be plateauing, the cost, context window, and efficiency is still getting much better. When you chat with a modern chat bot it’s not just sending your input to an LLM like the first public version of ChatGPT. Nowadays a single chat bot response may require many LLM requests along with other techniques to mitigate the deficiencies of LLMs. Just ask the free version of ChatGPT a question that requires some calculation and you’ll have a better understanding of what’s going on and the direction of the industry.

OpenAI, Google, Anthropic admit they can’t scale up their chatbots any further

Lol, no they didn’t. The quotes this articles are using are talking about LLMs not chatbots. This is yet another stupid article from someone who doesn’t understand the technology. There is a lot of legitimate criticism for the way this technology is being implemented but FFS get the basics right at least.

To be fair, some of my weekends have been a mistake.

I had a really good friend on MySpace that I lost touch with. I think he was a little paranoid, we didn’t speak much and he was always looking over his shoulder. His name was Tom.

That is a very VC baiting title. But it’s doesn’t appear from the abstract that they’re claiming that LLMs will develop to the complexity of AGI.

Do you have a non paywalled link? And is that quote in relation to LLMs specifically or AI generally?

largely based on the notion that LLMs will, with continued scaling, become artificial general intelligence

Who said that LLMs were going to become AGI? LLMs as part of an AGI system makes sense but not LLMs alone becoming AGI. Only articles and blog posts from people who didn’t understand the technology were making those claims. Which helped feed the hype.

I 100% agree that we’re going to see an AI market correction. It’s going to take a lot of hard human work to achieve the real value of LLMs. The hype is distracting from the real valuable and interesting work.

Hosting local has become even more important with the vulnerability of submarine cables.

Yay! I’m in! I’m very excited about this

Lol, I think that was BTKFS but maybe I should switch just to be safe

I normally use ext4 or btrfs and I like my wife so I won’t make the switch