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Cake day: August 8th, 2023

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  • Assuming that any nuclear weapons involved are only targeted at Ukraine I don’t believe that Nuclear Holocaust follows immediately. The United States has a direct line to the Kremlin for things like this and I’m sure that the other nuclear powers do as well.

    In this “Russia nuking Ukraine” scenario I think Russia would have a bigger problem with the Europeans than the United States. The Europeans would be seriously pissed off and both the French and the Brits are well able to respond with a range of economic, political, conventional, and even nuclear options.

    China would be hella displeased too, and not solely because of Taiwan, but because they would have to immediately choose between supporting Russia or doing business with literally anyone else in the world as the economic sanctions applied to Russia and any of their allies would be immediate and total.

    Russia isn’t going to launch because the only possible outcomes is their total isolation from all other nations or their complete destruction in nuclear fire. Putin knows this.











  • Don’t they have many trillions in reserves?

    Right now China has about 3.2 trillion in ForEx of all kinds and currencies which means that this bailout represents nearly half of the total.

    ForEx is an extremely complicated subject, way too much for a single post, but it is essentially the lubricant for trade. If you don’t have enough of it in the right currency on an hourly (or less) basis to support your imports and exports then the machine will seize up.

    So what China is doing here is risky as hell and if it doesn’t work they will soon have the same kind of financial problems that Iran does and that is stupendously bad for an export based economy.






  • It’s how we’ve reacted to their aggression so far.

    The United States really does not want to get into a direct conflict with Russia. There’s no question that we’d win any kind of conventional conflict but the American people have no desire for another land war in Europe. We’ve been there and done that, twice, and while I think we would support our European cousins for a 3rd go around getting support for it would require that the Europeans commit themselves first.

    On a tangent but speaking frankly Europe as a whole needs to plan for dwindling support from the United States. Regardless of who wins the 2024 US elections the voting demographics of the United States are changing fast. There are literally tens of millions of current and near future immigrants from all over the world who will never care about European security as much as the current voters do. Why would they? Why should they?

    The average immigrant from Asia or Latin America will not have ancestral ties to Europe and as their impact on US politics grows it’s inevitable that US support for European shenanigans will dwindle. As voters they will push the US Government to care far more about what’s happening in India, Mexico, Guatemala, Venezuela, and various countries on the African continent.

    This is going to happen even if the United States elects nothing but Progressive Politicians for the next 10 election cycles and Europe needs to prepare for it.